Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Super Modeling

female model on runway

Weather modeling has become quite a big deal in recent decades, with meteorologists falling all over themselves to report what the latest models say. It sounds like a fun job, and I’m trying to find out how to apply to become a weather modeler. If it involves appearing in a swimsuit, though, forget it.

I love it when a radio announcer chirps “clear and sunny” during a storm because they read the outlook without first going to the window to have a look out. Funny how reality can boost the accuracy of weather reports. So, when you can’t even bank on today’s forecast, it’s normal to view long-range projections with a skeptical eye.

However, seasonal models are very good at foreseeing key trends such as droughts or severe hurricane seasons. You can depend on models if they call for above-average precipitation this winter. But if you want to know if it will snow on a given day next week, you’ll have to listen to the radio. Or flip a coin.

On its website, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explains that seasonal modeling “…provides information about the expected state of regional climate, based on long-term trends, shorter-term persistence in the climate system, and the current and anticipated state of tropical sea surface temperatures (i.e., El Niño). Seasonal forecasts for upcoming months use sophisticated computer models, statistical models, and/or expert judgments.”

El Niño and La Niña, respectively, are the warm and cool phases of the 2- to 7-year “Southern Oscillation,” a tropical ocean current system that has a huge effect on our weather. That’s a drawback to living on a planet heat doesn’t stay on its own part of the map.

Meteorology dates back to Aristotle; in fact, he’s the guy who came up with the term. I suspect that in its early days, meteorology was pretty boring, hampered by a general scarcity of meteors. Honestly, you have to wonder what Aristotle was expecting. Most likely, things picked up for the new discipline when it began to measure other stuff that fell out of the skyrain, for example.

I had always equated the science with forecasting, since the person on TV giving the weather outlook was called a meteorologist. But meteorology includes studying the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere, and tracking changes and trends in its composition and behavior.

Austria opened the first-ever national weather bureau in 1851, followed by the UK in 1854, and the US in 1890. While virtually every country now has its own weather forecasting service, some of the top research facilities are in China, Japan, France, and the UK. Long-range modeling is an international effort, as getting accurate forecasts is important for all nations. NOAA is a free, user-friendly resource, and I encourage people to visit http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range to see its outlook for the upcoming season.

Some climate centers charge fees to release modeling charts and graphs. Highly accurate systems such as the European Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction (EUROSIP) may run 20 or more models at once, each using different processes, and with origins in perhaps a dozen countries. EUROSIP reports are for professionals, with language like “The set of dynamical and statistical models predict weak La Niña conditions with an SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region of -1.1 C…” I’ll stick with NOAA, thank you very much.

Model accuracy is checked by “hindcasting,” or predicting past weather. This sounds like another job I could handle, provided the past was not older than about a week. In hindcasting, climate inputs from a given time period are entered into each model, and researchers compare the modeled forecasts with known historical conditions. Models are constantly adjusted to further “train” them. In one exercise, ocean surface temperature readings were used to “forecast” El Niño and La Niña events from 1857 to 2003. Not only did the model correctly identify every event, it predicted each one up to two years out.

Results like that make me wonder why the three-day forecast is often not much better than a guess. Maybe I really should get into weather modeling. I hope you’re not required to wax.

Photo at top: Brigid Hetzler on runway, 2017. Photo Courtesy of Brigid Hetzler.

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Paul Hetzler has been an ISA Certified Arborist since 1996. His work has appeared in the medical journal The Lancet, as well as Highlights for Children Magazine.You can read more of his work at PaulHetzlerNature.org or by picking up a copy of his book Shady Characters: Plant Vampires, Caterpillar Soup, Leprechaun Trees and Other Hilarities of the Natural World




2 Responses

  1. David Smail says:

    I have owned a summer home on the Great Sacandaga Lake for forty years. New York State built the Conklingville Dam in the 1920 to control the flow on the Hudson River. The Hudson River Black River Regulating District operations the Conklingville Dam, alternately impound or release waters into the Hudson River to help prevent flooding during periods of high-water flow and augment river flows during periods of drought. The level of the lake changes about 18 feet over the year and the fluctuation creates problems for the people who use the lake.

    More than fifteen years ago, I was trying to determine if the Hudson River Black River Regulating District could use long range weather forecasting to improve the control of the Great Sacandaga Lake Level. NOAA make seven-day and fourteen-day precipitation forecasts which predicts that what we would see precipitation that was either average, above average, or below historical average for period. I did a three-year study to determine if these predictions could be used to predict the flow on the rivers in the watershed.

    I found no correlation between the long-range forecasts and the flows within the watershed. I called the scientist who was in charge of the long-range forecasts, who stated that in the Northeast his prediction was correct only 15% of the time. I found this to be amassing, because if I had a monkey throwing a dart to do the prediction, it would be correct 33% of the time.

  2. Fiacco J Brian says:

    And I would encourage everyone to try the Norwegian Meteorological Institutes app available for both iPhone and Android. The app name is simply YR. Run it in parallel with your current weather app and see which one does best for you. I’ve been running it for a couple of years and have been very impressed.

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